La La Land : It won't win Best Picture for a few reasons

It's a good film, but it's not exceptional. The last great musical was Les Miserables and it didn't win. It also had great performances from Jackman, Hathaway, Seyfried, Redmayne, Cohen, Carter and Crowe. The plot of the film has similarities to the Artist. In a time like this, Hollywood won't give it to a musical about Hollywood. They'll try to find a film that's relevant. Moonlight, Hacksaw Ridge, Silence in my opinion have better chances at winning the award, because of their message. Chazelle could indeed go on to win Best Director, but Jenkins and Gibson could be the dark horses. Jenkins because he would be the first black director to win it and Gibson because of the battle scenes and the comeback narrative.

The critics could very well pick it as the best, but Hollywood won't. A lot of people were saying that the Revenant and Mad Max deserved the win last year, but the Academy went with Spotlight because of the theme of the film. La La Land doesn't have a large following like The Revenant and Fury Road. Moonlight, Hacksaw Ridge and Silence are gaining tremendous momentum and their stories and message are powerful. Personally, my favorite would be Hacksaw Ridge with Mel winning Best Director. My second choice would be La La Land and Chazelle. However, it will probably go to Moonlight.

I do agree. I love the film as a whole, and it will win the majority of technical awards and maybe even director (please Chazelle). However, the Academy will just be more drawn to Manchester By the Sea to me because of the mood of theme of that film. Or, they give it to La La Land for being something new.

la la land will sweep the nominations but get a few of technical awards finally like the best music, best costume and best cinemagraphy etc

I think in these times Academy voters might be more inclined to vote for a lighthearted film. I also think that Moonlight has an excellent chance as well. In addition to being an brilliant, moving film the Academy took a lot of fire for lack of representation of African Americans. Thankfully there have been many exceptional films this year featuring individuals from all walks of life.

"In these times?" Just being Trump won for POTUS and a few celebrities died? Tell me, what is so morose and scary about "these times" compared to "other times?"

Well, i'll tell you what is so scary. Yes, the fact that Trump won the presidency is scary. I was no fan of Clinton, but the fact that an incompetent buffoon like Trump got elected to the office of President, shows the lack of education and sanity in the US. I am European-American, and I live between Europe and the US. Brexit was an utter failure and disaster, fueled by angry, ignorant, delusional people who were swayed by unrealistic and delusional nationalist rhetoric. There is no plan, people started losing their jobs, the NHS is on the way to privatize, and the economy is going down the *beep* You have that. On the other hand, you have Trump as President, who will sell the US to the highest bidder. The fact that anyone took or takes this clown seriously is proof of the crazy world we live in. You have the worst people being hired by Trump, and then you have the fact that his daughter is taking control of his businesses while also being part of his political circle. Only in the US, the UK and maybe a few other mental midget countries, would a tacky clown like Trump successfully sell himself like a successful, classy and knowledgeable political Messiah. Smoke and mirrors. The Middle East is on fire, with the main Middle Eastern countries in the hands of lunatics and incompetents. Egypt is in the hands of an incompetent general. Israel is in the hands of a right wing jewish fanatic supremacist. Turkey is in the hands of an Islamic fanatic. Iran is in the hands of fanatic Muslims and Saudi Arabia is doing its usual thing, which is screwing with the world. Putin is trying to establish Russia's power in the Middle East and Europe and is a snake-like madman. It's a world that's on the verge of collapsing.

Nicely put. I agree.

I agree too.

so in other words, the same as ever.

seriously, this is a case of presentism. the world is no more dire today than its been for other centuries. far better, in fact. would you rather live now or in the dark ages? more modern, would you rather live now or in a world war that has european nations committing genocide and the US using atomic bombs on japanese who they called inhuman animals?

though i am not interested in moonlight, but moonlight has been the most promising one of bp for me before la la land get snubbed in best ensemble by the sag.

You should see Sing Street if you enjoy music.

i watched it and i like it actually

Realistic assessment except this film is hardly the best of this year. Manchester by The Sea and Moonlight are.

I'm excited to see how everything shapes up. My money at the moment is on La La Land. I love Oscar season!

I agree with everything except Les Mis being a great film. That movie is an atrocity.

I agree, La La Land is a noble effort but flawed in my opinion. I am not sure I agree with the critics there is a lot of hero worship going on on this one.I am sure it will win technical awards, maybe best musical score, but not much more.

Although LLL is my fav so far, I haven't seen Manchester or Moonlight yet. But it seems there's no clear frontrunner, so it'll be whatever catches the voters fancy on the date they cast their vote.

The music is all that matters, nothing but the music! The Red Shoes

"Good but not exceptional"
I totally agree. I also loved Sing Street. It had better acting and I better story.

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A lot of people were saying that the Revenant and Mad Max deserved the win last year, but the Academy went with Spotlight because of the theme of the film.

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"Deserved" is a personal choice. Nothing even slightly wrong with the personal preferences of voters or non-voters.

PREDICTING what WILL win is something entirely different: neither The Revenant nor Mad Max: Fury Road received writing nominations from AMPAS (nor did they win the PGA or receive a SAG Best Cast nomination).

You'd have to go back to the universally-"loved" Titanic in 1997 to find a Best Picture winner minus a writing nomination. Before that, it would be 1965's The Sound of Music.

Theme isn't really a measurable indicator.

4, 8, 15, 16, 23, 42

You need a great theme AND it needs to be done excellently.

I disagree with Les Miserable being a great musical. This movie was way better executed all around.

Best picture is between Manchester by the Sea, Moonlight, and this movie La La Land

Les Mis the movie was not better than the actual musical.