Politics : China Will Replace USA As #1 Global Power

By 2020?

Sounds about right GDP wise. Militarily America will still be on top I would say for another 20 years.

However with Trump killing the TPP, most of the remaining TPP members (Australia, Brunei, Canada, Chile, Japan, Malaysia, Mexico, New Zealand, Peru, Singapore and Vietnam) will likely gravitate toward China's RCEP trade pact.

Then once you add in the other likely-to-be RCEP members (Cambodia, Indonesia, Laos, Myanmar, the Philippines, Thailand, India and South Korea), you end up with a trade alliance that comprises over one-third of the world economy. And it will be an alliance in which China wil be the dominant player in setting trade rules. So yeah, China is most definitely on the rise.

It's funny. What was once called "The American Century" really began with its entry into WWI, in 1916. Turns out that American Century very likely will have last for exactly that: 100 years, and not one year longer.

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It's funny. What was once called "The American Century" really began with its entry into WWI, in 1916.

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What's interesting is Britain became the dominant superpower from 1815 onwards after the defeat of the French. Would be funny if everyone gets 101 years at the top.

Britain 1815-1916
USA 1916-2017
China 2017-2118

Btw, GDP as measured by PPP adjusted, China's already top. But it'll overtake the US for nominal in less than 10 years.

Unless and untill China's economy collapses too. We have a destructively symbiotic relationship with China. We need them to buy our debt, and they need us to buy their cheap crap. There's also a chance for a civil war or revolt.

Also, huge portions of China still don't even have electricity. They're going to have a population problem soon. Well, they already do, overpopulation, but they're going to have a different problem. A hugely shrinking population. Because of the one-child policy, many families chose to abort the girls, so there now and in the future won't be enough women to go around. There will be much more men than women. In 60 years when the current young population starts dying, they're going to be in trouble.



Never trust a black man named "Chip."

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We have a destructively symbiotic relationship with China. We need them to buy our debt, and they need us to buy their cheap crap.

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What are you trying to do, give me a massive heart attack? After all this time you finally said something that I can agree with.







"I hear no voice. The dead cannot speak."

Your analysis is terribly uninformed. which shows you have no idea what you're talking about:

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We need them to buy our debt, and they need us to buy their cheap crap.

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China's been selling US debt since 2015 to offset money being moved off shore by corrupt officials and businessmen. The Yuan has been weakening so much, China's had to sell off it's US assets to counter the fall in the yuan.

BUT the US market is now less and less important to China, because China's spent the last 15 years diversifying its markets, in fact China does more trade with Europe. America dropping out of the TPP means China's moving into take over that market share.

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Also, huge portions of China still don't even have electricity.

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Wtf are you talking about here? Do you make up facts in your head?

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A hugely shrinking population. Because of the one-child policy

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The one child policy ended in 2015.

See, China's a well oiled machine running far more efficiently that the US. They make the major changes that need to be made instead of pursuing ridiculous strategies that don't work.

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China's been selling US debt since 2015 to offset money being moved off shore by corrupt officials and businessmen. The Yuan has been weakening so much, China's had to sell off it's US assets to counter the fall in the yuan.

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China has dumped roughly 3% of their US holdings. Just enough to make Japan our biggest overseas creditor.

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China has dumped roughly 3% of their US holdings.

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You mean 30%.

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instead of pursuing ridiculous strategies that don't work.

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You mean the supply side economics that Republicans have been pushing for the last few decades?

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See, China's a well oiled machine

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Yeah not really.

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running far more efficiently that the US.

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In some ways. In some ways not. They still have a long way to go and there's still plenty of room and time for it to all come crashing down.



Never trust a black man named "Chip."

Great. Let them police the world while we rebuild our country.

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Let them police the world

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Why would they do that? The Chinese are smart. They've spent the last 20 years building business ties while America's been policing the world and antagonizing half the world (stupid strategy) which is why they caught up so fast.

China's long-term strategy is an economic one, aided by an emphasis on educating the populace. Meanwhile, President Trump wants to pump more $trillions into the Defense Department and hired DeVos as the Secretary Of Education.


So it goes.

China probably won't police the world until they been #1 for 20 years, they may only take moral responsibility after being in power for some time, but they may lead combat against global climate change

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Let them police the world while we rebuild our country.

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"Police the world" is just a euphemism for "set up military bases in key regions to maintain and build your power structures". It's not something that will ever be rolled back until someone can make us do so by force.

China is of course a threat/rival any way you look at it but as has been mentioned we have a critical symbiotic relationship with them. Them surpassing us in GDP is not a huge issue and doesn't really change anything in and of itself about the balance of world power or the ability of the billionaires at the very top to continue to exhaust world resources for profit. As long as that can continue, and as long as enough Americans fail to wake up, smell the coffee, and begin voting their best interests, it doesn't matter how many of us fall into poverty. The corporate droning war/marketing/banking machine will hum on.

I've been saying that for a few years now, and after I speak it is like I never spoke at all. My fellow Americans care only about their games and toys.








"I hear no voice. The dead cannot speak."

My grandma was very religious and use to have "visions" of some sort about the world. She said "the yellow race will rule the world one day" - that was some 35 years ago when China was still a global leader by population, but nothing much than that and there is no doubt at this time and era she was just about spot on.
And they deserve it. They work harder than anyone else. Well maybe Japan has more harder workers but they are part of that region/culture as well.

That is true as China has the immigration restitrions that the US doesn't have. The US will have twice the population it has now in this lifetime. Though it won't be all that much type of people you want.

Sure. All they'd have to do in the next three years is triple the size of their navy, bring their Air Force into the 21st century, sprinkle military bases all over the world, boost their per capita GDP by six, eight hundred percent.



..for starters.


..shouldn't be a problem.

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And develop missiles that don't flop into the ocean.

I don't think America will go down without a fight.

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I don't think America will go down without a fight.

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Let's use the last time a world power lost the top spot as an analysis and comparison.

Did the British fight America when America overtook it? No.

America overtook the British during WW1. War doesn't pay it bogs the country down. America f@cked up big time with Iraq. Then its banking system's which is a big syphoning system designed to help bankers and the rich but doesn't create anything, just sucks up money from the overall economy.

The British then lost its empire because of WW2, and the prestige it lost from WW2 and almost losing to Nazi Germany gave all its colonies hope of driving Britain off. Which they did.

China and Russia are already pressing against America in the same way. America can't afford to have a hold over the globe the way it did since WW2.

Your examples were a long time ago. America doesn't have a productive base anymore (Trump is trying to change it though) and depends on imports of cheap goods. American dollar is backed by oil (maintained by a strong military). Once this is gone, the dollar goes into free fall.

I don't think America will watch that happen without a fight. But you're free to have your opinion.

China's ghost cities, lack of human rights, failure to innovate beyond just rote learning and copying other countries tech, pollution and poisonous food and products and overall misery for the still-vastly rural peasant class and separatist movements of ethnic minorities will catch up to them sooner than later, I'd be more willing to bet on the collapse of any single superpower in the future than another one dominating.

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China's ghost cities, lack of human rights, failure to innovate beyond just rote learning and copying other countries tech, pollution and poisonous food and products and overall misery for the still-vastly rural peasant class and separatist movements of ethnic minorities will catch up to them sooner than later

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So.why hasn't it caught up with them? It's only been 40 years since China's markets opened up..

See, you're hoping they fail which is why you only focus on the negatives and lack and objective view. Yes those are their problems, but their main advantages are

1) They have good overall strategy for the country unlike the US which runs inefficient strategies because of lobbying from weapons manufacturers, oil industry, banking etc.

2) They don't piss off half the world and waste resources policing it. They've been investing and building business ties.

In fact and here's the crazy thing. If you go on youtube etc or talk to China's younger generation which I have in person, they are fiercely patriotic. More so than the older generation. So the communist party's hold is ironically more secure than it was 30 years ago.

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See, you're hoping they fail

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I hope their communist regime fails and they become democratic, yes.

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If you go on youtube etc or talk to China's younger generation which I have in person, they are fiercely patriotic. More so than the older generation.

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It's easy to be patriotic when you are brainwashed. It's disturbing to me that Tianamen Square is an issue that has been virtually wiped from the history of the nation, and of those few young people who know of it, they shut down and don't want to talk about it like a war veteran being asked about D-Day or something. I mean yeah Americans aren't too fond of discussing our past shameful periods, but at least we don't pretend it never happened either.

When you consider this attitude that discussing anything that could upset the balance of the "harmony of the nation", how can you really trust any of the books the government publishes on the state of the economy or the happiness of their people?

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I hope their communist regime fails and they become democratic, yes.

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You're confusing hope with reality and the most likely objective outcome.

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When you consider this attitude that discussing anything that could upset the balance of the "harmony of the nation", how can you really trust any of the books the government publishes on the state of the economy or the happiness of their people?

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That's your assessment with your knowledge. What's interesting is I can attack China's position in say the South China Sea, or China's lack of human rights, and I have on youtube comments. Almost immediately and relentlessly I will have Chinese people and not peasants farmers, but generally Chinese studying overseas, well educated, speaking English, attack me for my views.

Even the ones living overseas, who've seen what the outside world's like protect their country. They've basically identified the party and the country as the same thing, even though for us we see the communist party as oppressing them. They don't see it at all, they see the party has having made China great and that humans need control over them.

The communist regime is not going anywhere anytime soon.

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So the communist party's hold is ironically more secure than it was 30 years ago.

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How exactly is that ironic? Are you sure you know what that word means?



Never trust a black man named "Chip."

Nuke'm, , like the nips.



"All right we'll give some land to the n;ggers and the ch;nks. But we don't want the Irish!"

They might even invade, wall to keep us boxed in. Trump and Clintons are pawns, Russia a distraction.

Unlikely. Their growth is unsustainable, and they now have a rather large bubble in their housing The real concern is when it breaks, how negatively will it affect the rest of the world.

There is also the factor that the dollar is still the world's reserve currency.



"the absence of evidence is the actual evidence." Tcob44